The netbook processor wars: Atom x86 versus snapdragon ARM

 

War is brewing in Netbook processor land. The current king of the hill is the Intel Atom CPU based on the x86 instruction set, the same instruction set that is used in "full size" laptops and desktops. The only contender that Intel faced in the Netbook space up to now was the VIA Nano, which didn't have much success up to now. The Nano is somewhat more powerful than the Atom, but it also consume more power, a major problem in a market where battery life is more critical than processing power.

But now a new contender has appeared: the Qualcomm Snapdragon processor based on the ARM instruction set. The current model is single core and runs at 1 Ghz, but the new models to be released this year should be dual-core and be able to run at up to 1.5 Ghz. This is powerful enough to run most of the applications that a Netbook is expected to deliver. Add to that the fact that the Qualcomm snapdragon ARM core can also include hardware HD video decoding as well as Bluethoot, Wifi and GPS wireless technologies and you already have a serious contender for the title of ultimate mobile processor. Now the killer blow for the Atom is that the Snapdragon processor should consumes much less power, not requires a fan and be half as expensive as the current Atom + chipset on offer from Intel. Ouch!

With these new generation offerings, the ARM architecture is ready to make the jump from devices like the iPhone or the Nokia N810 Internet Tablet to Netbooks and crush the Atom processor. However Intel has a secret weapon against ARM based processors like the Snapdragon: Windows compatibility!
The disadvantage with ARM based processors like the snapdragon is that the full version of windows will not run on them. It is not that Microsoft doesn't want to make an ARM version of Windows, but because most drivers and applications for Windows are closed source, it is not possible for Microsoft to recompile them fro the ARM architecture. Since the main incentive for users to run Windows is to be able to run legacy or familiar applications (the OS itself is not that great) and that Windows for ARM would not do that there is little point. The Microsoft offering for ARM based processors is Windows CE and mobile, but these did never gain traction with consumers and frankly, sucks!

This means that on the software side much of the ARM action will be with Linux and it's derivatives like Google Android or Google ChromeOS! This is a field that Intel is trying to invade with it's Moblin platform: An x86 based Linux distribution optimized for Netbooks and portable devices that features very short boot times. Recently Novel announced that they will provide a SUSE distribution for x86 based Netbooks based on the Moblin standard. On the ARM side, Xandros has announced the availability of the same Linux distribution used with the first EEE PC for the ARM architecture, and canonical, the backers of Ubuntu, are currently porting the well known distribution to ARM. It is easier to port Linux applications to the ARM architecture because the source code is available, so a lot of the software only needs to be recompiled. Add to that the fact that a lot of the drivers are implemented in the Linux kernel and hardware support becomes a cinch.

What is my prediction? I think that the arrival of ARM based Netbooks will first split the market in two.
On one side we will have cheap, silent ARM based netbooks with long battery life but a reduced number of applications. These will probably focus on web access, music, video, GPS and basic productivity tools. Expect something like the original Xandros Linux distribution of the EEE PC and the Linpus lite distribution of the Acer Aspire One. These netbooks based on processors like the Qualcomm Snapdragon should cost between $200 and $300 and will probably use SSDs for storage. Some of these will probably be heavily subsidized by network operators or given away free with a contract. They will be designed as companion devices to supplement a desktop or a destop replacement laptop.

On the other side we will have real "mini notebooks" with processors based on the Atom x86 architecture. These will feature full featured operating systems like Windows XP, Windows 7 or Ubuntu. The mini notebooks will be heavier, require a fan for cooling, probably have shorter battery life (or heavier batteries) and will mostly use a mechanical HDD for storage. They will also be more expensive, with prices starting a $300 and going up past the $500 mark, but since they will feature a full OS and will be suitable to run most desktop applications they will be able to replace a laptop or desktop computer.

What will happen next is open to conjecture. Either the ARM based Netbooks will gain full computer capabilities and displace the Atom based Netbooks, or Intel will reduce the price and power footprint of the Atom so much that it displaces the ARM Netbooks. It will depend a lot on the Linux OSes used with the ARM based Netbooks. If these offer a good enough experience and enough applications to make the users forget that they are not running Windows, ARM will probably win. If on the other hand these are half-assed experiments most users may decide that they prefer the full Windows experience after all, even at an increased price and with a shorter battery life